What SD9, SD4, and Lt. Gov. Patrick’s Warning Mean for the 90th Legislature

Written By Courtney Williamson

Two vacant Texas Senate seats — one already decided, one being decided right now — may tell a bigger story about what the 90th Texas Legislature might look like when it convenes in January 2027. Here’s what you need to know.

The Upset: Senate District 9 (Fort Worth / Tarrant County) — January 2026
Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a 33-year-old Air Force veteran and union machinist, defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 57–43% in a special election runoff — flipping a district that had been Republican since 1991 and that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Republicans outspent Rehmet roughly $2.5 million to $380,000. Trump personally endorsed Wambsganss, but at the end of the day, none of it mattered.
 
Some takeaways from that startling result:

  • One in four to one in three Republican voters crossed over to support Rehmet.

  • Rehmet won an estimated 79% of the Hispanic vote — a 34-point swing compared to 2022 Democratic margins in majority-Hispanic precincts.

  • Independents broke roughly 55–75% for Rehmet.

  • Wambsganss received nearly 9,000 fewer votes in Fort Worth and 7,000 fewer in Keller/Southlake than the combined GOP total in November.

The win covers only the remainder of the current term through January 2027. Sen. Rehmet has now been sworn in, and he and Wambsganss are set for a full rematch in November 2026, making SD9 one of the most-watched legislative races in the country.

 The Next Test: Senate District 4 (Montgomery County / Southeast Texas) — May 2, 2026
Early voting is underway right now (through April 28) for the SD4 special election triggered when former Sen. Brandon Creighton resigned to become Chancellor of the Texas Tech University System.  In the race:

  • Republican Brett Ligon — former Montgomery County District Attorney for 17 years. Endorsed by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Creighton, and U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell. Well-funded and institutionally backed.

  • Democrat Ron Angeletti — educator, special education advocate, and small business owner. Running on public schools, healthcare affordability, and economic stability. Near-zero fundraising as of January.

This is not a realistic flip. Trump carried SD4 with 66% in 2024 — nearly double his margin in SD9. Even if Democrats replicated the entire Rehmet swing, the math still gives Ligon a win around 52–47. The Democratic primary drew roughly 47,000 votes vs. 88,000 on the Republican side. The more meaningful question is whether Angeletti can hold Ligon below 60% — a result that would reinforce Republican anxiety heading into November.

 The Bigger Picture: Lt. Gov. Patrick’s Warning
On April 8, speaking at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in Austin — an audience of the state’s top conservative donors and policy leaders — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick made a candid admission that ricocheted across Texas politics:

“The Democrats are angry. We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”
 

He was specifically calling on Cornyn and Paxton — locked in a bitter May 26 U.S. Senate primary runoff — to unify behind the eventual nominee. But the warning goes further: Patrick explicitly cited SD9 as reason for concern, noting that Democrats and outside groups “will pour hundreds of millions of dollars” into Texas, and said Cornyn and Paxton “will have to help House members.”
 
Republicans currently hold 88 of 150 Texas House seats. Democrats need to flip 14 to take the majority — the same number they flipped in the 2018 midterms. Patrick thinks his own Senate “is in good shape,” but the House is a different story.  Importantly, Speaker Dustin Burrows disputed this assessment in subsequent comments, suggesting that the GOP may sustain some losses but will retain control of the House.

What This Means for the 90th Legislature
The 90th Legislature convenes in January 2027 with a makeup determined by the November 2026 elections. Here are the key variables to watch:

  • SD9 November rematch is a marquee race, with both Rehmet and Wambganss back on the ballot. Higher turnout could favor Wambsganss, but Rehmet has name recognition, a working-class biography, and a demonstrated ability to build coalitions across party lines.

  • The Texas Senate is likely to remain in Republican hands — Patrick himself said so — but Democrats need to claw from 12 seats toward 16 to deny a supermajority. Competitive suburban seats in November are where that fight happens.

  • The Texas House is the more volatile chamber. The Cornyn-Paxton divide, ongoing Trump-era suburban erosion, and a fired-up Democratic base are real headwinds for House Republicans.

  • The SD4 special election is a leading indicator. Watch Ligon’s margin on May 2 — if Angeletti outperforms the baseline, it suggests the SD9 result wasn’t a fluke and keeps pressure on Republicans in competitive districts through November.  Both Ligon and Angeletti are on the November ballot as well.

Courtney Williamson